Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its response: a renewed assault of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The succession of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are fought: optimistic declarations are issued from various governments. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor missile launches from Russian territory, a ability provided through timely intelligence. From observation points, military aircraft that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons activated: defensive missiles targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely supplied through Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The instant of fear quickly becomes resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun opened up on a unmanned aircraft somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – probably Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, devastation and utility failures in many homes as a result of the night's assault. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those full day encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The comprehensive proposal from Washington provoked deep reactions, discussion and deep concern – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and international summits.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This cycle will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is easy to blame certain parties of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership operates on a premise well known to experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from thinking that the status quo will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Moscow is confident that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, slowly losing civilians and areas but avoiding a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Kyiv's twin challenges – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their focus does not switch to domestic problems. And although their task will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of diplomats, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect certain reluctance to change the course of events, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the coming months, mainly require sustained allied backing.
