Day-to-Day Murders in Mexico Fall Over a Third Under the Sheinbaum Administration, As per Government Statistics

The mean figure of per-day homicides monthly in Mexico has fallen by 37% since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, per new government data. However, public safety analysts have cautioned that murder figures may not point to better national stability.

Significant Reduction in Daily Figures

There was an mean of nearly 55 homicides a day in last November compared with nearly 87 when the President took the leadership in September of last year. This announcement was delivered by the chief of the nation's federal safety system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's regular press briefing on Tuesday.

“The outcome in killings that have been recorded in these months is extremely notable,” Sheinbaum stated, noting that the previous month the smallest amount of murders were documented for any November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Intense cartel infighting, alongside the administration's heavily military campaigns to confront the drug gangs, have caused Mexico’s homicide numbers escalate in recent years. The figure peaked at a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a homicide figure over 4x greater than the US. From that point, homicides have been on the downward trend, falling to 33,550 the previous year. The President has attributed her public safety strategy for an ostensibly more pronounced decline in killings in the current year.

At a media briefing in August, the head of state said: “There is a strategy, there is tracking of the strategy, and there is detailed tracking municipality by municipality in certain cases. The approach functions. And we have to persist at it each day.”

The main elements of the President's safety strategy encompass:

• Bolstering Mexico’s domestic security force.
• Advancing intelligence and investigation capabilities.
• Increased coordination between government departments.

Expert Skepticism and Data Limitations

But, public safety researchers cautioned that using homicide statistics to assess the situation of peace was problematic. This is notably true in light of the uptick in other crimes such as people going missing.

“It would be excellent information if this were a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the murder data and conclude: ‘Alright, good,’” commented Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively positive.”

According to the policy research organization Mexico Evalúa, homicides overall dropped by over 20% in the first 10 months of the current year relative to the identical timeframe last year. But, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some regions have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on murders is not useful for estimating the reality of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a safety expert at Mexico Evalúa. “Firstly, we have police and prosecutors who do not have the capacity or the inclination to accurately identify and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the capability to mask violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that relying on monthly averages of daily killings was additionally an issue because it might hide periods when there were particularly high levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily mean renders spikes of violence less visible,” he said.

Detentions and Seizures as Metrics of Success

An area where the government can highlight the success of its security strategy is on arrests and confiscations. Close to 40,000 individuals were detained between October 2024 and this past November for major offenses, per official figures. More than 20,000 guns were seized and 311 tons of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump can't claim President Sheinbaum of inaction, because actually she is doing a lot with these many thousands of detentions, many thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely politically advantageous,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Unrest and Public Frustration

However despite these efforts, Mexico is still plagued by high violence, with several states in the grip of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a prominent assassination of a well-liked mayor in the region of Michoacan, one of 10 mayors murdered in the past 12 months.

Weeks later, thousands of young people protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their outrage at corruption and narco-violence.

“The federal government shares [data] in a way to build a narrative of improvement. From a political standpoint it’s highly effective, from a social perspective it’s highly questionable,” the analyst remarked.