A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates want to engage even with the basics. For instance, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and structural examples.
Discussions range over national emblems, levies, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Debate indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride believes a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who says: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the other's arguments."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, urged the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish question."
